Bitcoin difficulty may fall by about 8.2%: 87 blocks remained before the adjustment

The current live forecast

At the time of checking on November 14, 2026, Mempool showed about 87 blocks remaining before the next difficulty adjustment, with an estimate of −8.21% and an average block time of about 10.9 minutes; the previous change was +5.54%.

This is live-tracker data, so the estimate can change before the network moves to the new value. In this article, −8.21% is explicitly treated as a forecast rather than a completed result.

• estimated next change: −8.21%
• about 87 blocks before the adjustment
• snapshot average block time: about 10.9 minutes

How miners should read it

Bitcoin recalculates difficulty every 2,016 blocks so the average interval stays close to 10 minutes. A lower difficulty does not automatically mean higher dollar profit; it changes the expected share of rewards per unit of hashrate while other variables remain unchanged.

Actual profitability also depends on BTC price, the block subsidy and transaction fees, pool fees, uptime, electricity rate, cooling and repairs. The difficulty forecast should therefore be read together with your own costs.

Practical takeaway

Do not switch or buy equipment based on the forecast alone. Wait for the completed adjustment and update the calculator using your own electricity rate and real uptime.

When comparing ASICs, focus on J/TH, wall power and your electricity price rather than only the BTC/day figure from a single snapshot.